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The Economic Analyst

Economy

Predictions and analysis of the current and future drivers of economic growth in Canada and the world.
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Investing

Thoughts on building your portfolio: asset allocation, stocks, bonds, commodities, speculative investments, gold/silver.
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Primers

Mandatory reading for anyone new to the site. These articles are a one-stop overview of the macro factors affecting the Canadian economy.
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- Primer Articles
  - What is deflation?
  - The dangers of mass psychology (or why overwhelming majorities are always wrong)
- Video Primers
  - New Video Primer- CMHC
  - Toronto condo data; China about to hit a wall?; Fiscal austerity to weigh on public sector jobs; The Age of Deleveraging; Another video primer

Real Estate

A focus on Canadian real estate and a possible 'made in Canada' housing bubble: Discussion, analysis, predictions and advice.
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Social Trends

Predictions and discussion on the changing nature of societal norms: frugality, savings, social unrest, austerity, etc.
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- Global Trends
  - Steve Keen discusses debt, housing, and the economy
  - Employment number misses consensus; US consumers cutting back....will Canadians follow?; Another great CMHC video
- Canadian Trends
  - The social fallout of a dying credit bubble
  - If you, personally, want a “soft landing” you had better make sure you have a good parachute.

Tag: investment

Profiting from mass psychology

SEPTEMBER 09, 2010
As a follow up to our last primer, I figured I should elaborate on a very short-term strategy I have found quite profitable in the past. Remember that overwhelming majorities in financial markets must always be wrong. This is one of the great paradoxes in investing and is why you should NEVER follow the crowd.
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Building a winning investment portfolio: Part 1

DECEMBER 29, 2010
This is the first of a three-part series. Please also check out part 2 and part 3. Investment portfolios I was inspired by a recent BMO press release to revisit the topic of asset allocation and building an investment portfolio.
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More signs of a coming condo glut

MARCH 02, 2011
As I've noted before, the Toronto condo market is near its saturation point and looks set for a fall. The city currently has 286 active condo projects currently underway, representing 73,953 units — by far the most of any city in North America. This level of development is significantly outpacing the expected level of demand considering net household formation in the GTA.
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What are the implications?

APRIL 07, 2011
I'm working on a neat series looking at the historical percentage of GDP derived from residential construction in different provinces and connecting that to the change in the percentage of the workforce employed in construction over time. It might give us some hints on how a potential housing correction might weigh on economic and job growth. Stay tuned for that.
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How risky are Canadian banks?; Interesting tidbits from the Conference Board

AUGUST 20, 2011
How risky are Canadian banks?
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