The Economic Analyst

The purpose of this blog…

SEPTEMBER 06, 2010

Welcome to Financial Insights! The lofty purpose of this blog is to share ideas about the macro economy, savings, and investments. The idea is to preserve and enhance our wealth in the turbulent times ahead. In the coming days I will expand on what I mean by 'turbulent times'. I will post some primers to help everyone understand what I believe are the large forces that will shape the financial landscape for the next decade, namely deflation, debt-deleveraging, secular shifts in consumer attitudes, and demographics.

CMHC- The enabler to Canada’s housing addiction

SEPTEMBER 10, 2010

Hello again

Late Daily round-up for Monday, September 13, 2010

SEPTEMBER 14, 2010

The content of this blog continues to go mainstream.  We had a couple of survey results released yesterday, the content of which supports what has been said on this wretched blog.  My brother used to post some of my email commentary on his blog.  You can look back through the archive to see for yourself that so much of what is now playing out in the media has been warned about for some time now.

The media spin machine

SEPTEMBER 18, 2010

Hello all

Weekend roundup: Are we really this dumb?

SEPTEMBER 26, 2010

I've been asking myself this question quite a bit today as I've been some perusing news stories from this past week. First let's start with the must-read of the day. Check out this fantastic blog post over at 'Whispers From the Edge of the Rainforest', where the author asks, "How can we be so blind?"

I’m alive….the canary is not!

SEPTEMBER 30, 2010

Well I've managed to survive the nastiest illness of my life.  I can't remember ever feeling as wretched as I did earlier this week.  I'm quite certain it was a real nasty case of food poisoning.  For those of you fortunate enough to not have ever experienced it, count your blessings.  It's awful.


Statistical aberration or ‘the new normal’?

OCTOBER 09, 2010

Hello all Do we all understand supply and demand? You know, you take something that is in demand, be it a good or a service, and you compare the supply of that good or service to the demand for it. Very basic economics tell us that if demand outpaces supply, you get price increases. If supply outpaces demand, you get price decreases.

Roundup: Turkey and Sweet Potato Edition

OCTOBER 10, 2010

Hello all and Happy Thanksgiving! I hope this weekend finds you in the company of those you love. On a day meant for giving thanks for all the blessings we have here in Canada (and we do have much to be thankful for), it seems almost wrong to post anything about the struggling economy and the coming housing bust. Alas, this is a blog dedicated to serving up the straight goods. No extreme doom and gloom...our economy will survive, but not sunshine and lollipops either. So let me highlight a few articles that caught my eye today:

How did we get here?

OCTOBER 16, 2010

Revisiting fundamentals

OCTOBER 19, 2010

You know you're in an asset bubble when the price of that asset grows far beyond the fundamentals that support them. In the case of real estate, the fundamentals that drive long term growth are incomes, affordability (interest rates), rents, and inflation.

The big question

OCTOBER 26, 2010

I received this email today: "I have a question for your two cents - I figure Vancouver has a 20% + decline in it, but I can't see any reason for the decline until mortgage rates rise. As long as home owners can pay the bills, they will stay where they are. Granted a slowdown in housing will hurt the economy in general, (and a strong loonie won't help either), but if supply doesn't increase, prices won't come down.

Dead wrong!

NOVEMBER 01, 2010

It sounds like October was another month of drying sales and rising listings in all major centres. Yet from preliminary info it sounds like a few cities once again experienced rising prices, most notably Vancouver. The devil is always in the details, and we'll get to those in a minute. But first, some buffoonery, courtesy of an intelligent commenter over at Greaterfool.ca: "Why not (gloat about rising prices)? Post-Olympic crash? Nope… Post HST crash? Didn’t make a dent in the market…

A Home Without Equity Is Just a Rental With Debt

NOVEMBER 02, 2010

Despite the unsubstantiated ravings of the real estate bulls who have stepped up their vocalizations of late, the facts surrounding the future of real estate remain indisputable. Debt levels remain too high, savings too low, home ownership at record high levels, global economy still surviving on government stimulus, fundamentals all well above long term means (with the exception of affordability which is at the upper range of its historic range, but only because of....) record low interest rates. None of this is sustainable.

A quick tour through the board stats- October 2010

NOVEMBER 03, 2010

By now many of the big real estate boards have reported their October numbers. Ottawa, Winnipeg, and Montreal being the notable exceptions as well as the national board, CREA. Let's take a quick tour across the country from west to east and see how things are shaping up using information directly form the horse's mouth (board press releases). Let's also watch for examples of the spin machines being put into overdrive! Victoria (VREB.org): Real estate sales rise in October

Scotia Bank’s rose coloured glasses

NOVEMBER 04, 2010

Scotia Bank released a report today with a downright rosy appraisal of our current economic situation here in Canada. Two points I want you to see: 1) They are examining the exact same data I present to you every day, yet come to completely different conclusions

Home owner equity...an indication of a healthy market?

NOVEMBER 09, 2010

This is the final post about the CAAMP report discussed in the prior two posts. I want to discuss the idea of home owner equity as an indication of a healthy market. In the CAAMP report, the discussion on home owner equity begins on page 27. First, a couple notes on methodology before we analyze the content. Flawed methodology

The 'soft landing' thesis: Valid, but highly unlikely

NOVEMBER 18, 2010

"Why we won't see a housing collapse"....more media nonsense

NOVEMBER 19, 2010

Tired, old adage: It's getting a bit old, yet we continue to find articles chanting the same old mantra to soothe edgy new home buyers: "The risk of a US style housing bust is remote" I've addressed both the inherent dangers in perpetuating a message that amounts to, "we're not exactly like the US, therefore we're fine", as well as the factual fallacies that generally accompany these arguments.

More red lights in China; House prices at a stalemate?

DECEMBER 02, 2010

Tomorrow we'll do another monthly round-up of the big real estate board stats. Victoria and Calgary are out already. Toronto and Vancouver come out tomorrow. Should be fun! Red lights in China...What's next for commodities? Hat tip to Donald for emailing me this story. China leading indicators flashing red lights

My Canadian economic forecast: Not particularly rosy

DECEMBER 16, 2010

After Canada's GDP posted a 'surprisingly' low 1% annualized growth rate in Q3, with September readings turning negative, economists went back to the drawing board to update their economic forecasts. Yesterday TD released its updated quarterly economic forecast. It provides some interesting thoughts, though I certainly don't agree with all of their views.

No debt problem here!

DECEMBER 20, 2010

I want to start this post with the following quote: "Recent developments in consumer finances are characterized by an unusual combination of hopeful and worrisome trends. Consumers remain the primary source of strength for the economy, but rising consumer indebtedness is a source of concern. The reasons for increased indebtedness and the types of debt being accumulated, however, make consumer obligations somewhat less worrisome than aggregate statistics might suggest. Notably, strong income growth and a robust housing market have supported borrowing."

Nicole Foss on Canadian real estate: "We are in a massive bubble"

DECEMBER 21, 2010

Happy New Year! What might 2011 hold?

JANUARY 01, 2011

Happy New Year to all! As we begin another year, it's always fun to contemplate just what the next 365 days might hold. Below are a few 'top 5' lists covering a range of finance and economic topics. Top global real estate stories: 1) Canadian real estate begins a protracted period of falling valuations. Sales remain weak. Listings gain steam throughout the year. I expect 10% off year-ago levels as a minimum.

Addendum to my 2011 predictions: Boomers, bubbles, and busts

JANUARY 01, 2011

Boomer dynamics Two more thoughts should be added to the 2011 outlook. Shortly after posting my predictions, Leith over at the Unconventional Economist reminded me that 2011 is the year when the first boomer turns 65.

Who's the 'hare-brained' one? More hot air from perma-bull Jay Bryan

JANUARY 02, 2011

A look into our future

JANUARY 04, 2011

Not too much by way of real estate data points for today, but lots of interesting happenings in the world of finance and economics. As the big real estate boards figure out how to spin this month's numbers, which should be out tomorrow and I expect will show a 20% year over year sales decline in most boards, let's turn our eyes to events that may well foreshadow what is to come here in Canada. For one day I look like a genius

Frustration in Europe's youth; Public unions under the gun in the States; China considering major property tax to squeeze bubble

JANUARY 05, 2011

European youth grow agitated Unemployment for the under-25 crowd is still stubbornly high across most of the Western world. As I've said before, young people with little by way of job prospects and facing the reality of a lower standard of living via rising taxes and shrinking government spending have a dangerous tendency to embrace radical ideals. The next few years will see the increasing popularity of fringe political parties in Europe, as they tap into growing resentment in generation Y'ers in particular.

Value of building permits plunges in November; Bank of Canada talks tough

JANUARY 10, 2011

Building permits plunge

Survey of Forecasters data; From stimulus to restraint; China's empty malls

JANUARY 12, 2011

Survey of Forecasters The Conference Board of Canada has released their 2011 survey of economic forecasters (subscription required) in which they surveyed economists about the growth prospects for the Canadian economy in 2011. The average analyst estimate for final 2011 GDP growth is 2.5%. This represents a 26% adjustment from analyst expectations earlier in 2010 when they forecast 2011 growth in the 3.4% range.

CREA stats and condo rule changes

JANUARY 14, 2011

CREA releases December sales data I'm just on my way out of town for the weekend, so this post will be missing much of my usual commentary. I will draw your attention to CREA's final December sales numbers which were released today: Resale housing market solid in December

Housing: A bug in search of a windshield

JANUARY 16, 2011

Emotions...

Asset bubbles according to Jeremy Grantham: Applications to the Canadian real estate market

JANUARY 26, 2011

Intro Jeremy Grantham is a living stock market legend. He is a deep value investor who has brought new concepts to the world of stock market investing. He championed the 'small cap value' approach and has a stellar track record. He is currently the Chairman of the Board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. He currently oversees over $100 billion in assets.

David Dodge interview on BNN: "House price to income, house price to rent at historic highs"

JANUARY 30, 2011

David Dodge, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interesting interview this past week on BNN where he discussed the new mortgage rule changes and the housing market in general. Thanks to VREAA for this gem and for transcribing the interview. Some of the key quotes:

Is homeowner equity a predictor of future price movements?

FEBRUARY 02, 2011

There's been quite a buzz about Vancouver detached homes hitting a new all-time high. I will address that data in my monthly tour of board stats just as soon as the data packages are released at the other big boards, which should be on Friday. In the meantime, let's consider an article from the Globe and Mail (kind thanks to my number 1 fan Mango for the link): Why a rate hike won't be a blow to most

More on the Capital Economics house price report

FEBRUARY 04, 2011

I was able to get my hands on the Capital Economics report (hyperlink removed at the request of the authors -ed._ . The report mirrors exactly what I've been warning about on this blog...nearly verbatim. You can understand then why I'm so smitten with it. Just for kicks, read this post before you read the Capital Economics report. Compare. Let's look at some key quotes and graphs: On the unprecedented rise in house prices

More lessons from the Irish experience

FEBRUARY 04, 2011

Ireland is a financial basket case. Yet only a few short years ago they were the envy of Europe. Ireland was dubbed the 'Celtic Tiger'. Strong economic growth had much of Europe caught in awe and envy. Ireland enjoyed budget surpluses. The good times were projected to continue indefinitely. In late November they received a bailout: An EU lifeline to protect them from creditors who increasingly viewed them as a default risk.

Quick tour through the board stats: January 2011

FEBRUARY 05, 2011

It's that time of the month again. Let's dive into the monthly board stats and see how things are shaping up. The board press releases can be found by clicking on the city name. Victoria Residential sales totaled 339, a decrease of 19% from last January's total of 418. Active listings rose slightly over December's numbers to sit just under 3300 units. This represents an increase of 15% over last January's inventory total of 2800 units.

Employment numbers rocking!; Building permits rise on new Ontario condo projects; Big banks begins hiking rates; Ignatieff warns on housing market risks

FEBRUARY 08, 2011

Employment numbers decidedly above expectation Expectations of 20,000 new jobs added in January were fully blown out of the water by the 69,000 new jobs added by the Canadian economy. Very impressive stuff. If we dig beneath the surface we do discover that while the headline number is still excellent, there are a few facts worth keeping in mind:

Shiller weighs in once again on Canadian real estate

FEBRUARY 09, 2011

Robert Shiller, the Yale economist, famed bubble expert, and co-creator of the Case-Shiller house price index in the US has once again added his thoughts to the Canadians housing miracle: Canada is 'a purely random success story': Shiller On the broader Canadian economy....is it as strong as we often hear?

Report highlights from 'The Current State of Canadian Family Finances'

FEBRUARY 18, 2011

The Vanier Institute of the Family released their annual Current State of Canadian Family Finances report earlier this week. It is well worth highlighting their important findings: Unemployment rate misleading: Considering the 'hidden unemployed'

A call for data: Just how much of a role does Hot Asian Money play in the Vancouver real estate market?

FEBRUARY 19, 2011

Vancouver debate continues... I'm currently having an interesting discussion with a couple frequent commenters on this blog in the comment section of a previous post. It's a discussion that has been pitting the Vancouver housing bulls against the Vancouver housing bears for years. Without a doubt, the bulls have won decisively for much of the past half decade since alarm bells started ringing about Vancouver house prices in the mid 2000s.

Crunching the numbers: Fundamentals will eventually matter

FEBRUARY 20, 2011

Thanks to everyone for the fantastic responses to the last post on Vancouver data. Almost 60 comments on a single post in 24 hours.....a record for this lowly blog. "Fundamentals eventually mattered..."

Conference Board on housing; OECD leading indicators show a slowdown in emerging markets

FEBRUARY 22, 2011

Conference Board weighs in on housing The Conference Board of Canada has published their Metropolitan Outlook for 2011 (subscription required to read report). While the outlook for each city is interesting, I was drawn to their macro outlook for Canada as a whole where they chimed in on two topics that I often discuss on this blog: Consumer spending and housing. On consumer spending...

Capital Economics on the Canadian economy: Housing downturn to hit hard

FEBRUARY 23, 2011

Capital Economics back at it again Just a few weeks after releasing a controversial report suggesting that Canadian real estate was heading for a significant correction, Capital Economics is once again back at it, this time suggesting that this same downturn is set to hit the economy hard.

RBC releases latest housing affordability report

FEBRUARY 24, 2011

RBC has released their latest housing affordability report for Q4 2010. Key findings: Housing affordability improved modestly in Q4 2011 on the back of lowering fixed (qualifying) interest rates.    

Public sector and their unions put on notice; Humourous commentary about 'bubblebloggers'

FEBRUARY 26, 2011

Public sector and their unions put on notice

Why falling house prices will pull at employment (not the other way around)

MARCH 01, 2011

Why a housing downturn would hurt employment This is a topic I discuss often on this lowly blog. It's a source of confusion for many people as most see employment as buoying house prices, not the other way around. I take a decidedly different view on this. The argument typically runs along the lines of, "house prices won't fall until there's a fall in unemployment". Let me suggest that one of the problems with credit bubbles is that they mask the true employment picture, which becomes clear as day the moment the credit binge dries up.

Lessons in mass psychology courtesy of the RBC housing survey....Does it also point to a potential buyer drought later in 2011?

MARCH 10, 2011

Glimpses into mass psychology RBC released a housing survey yesterday. It is full of mostly useless information, but there were a few tidbits that jumped out at me.

Bank of America Merill Lynch weighs in on Canadian real estate

MARCH 15, 2011

Bank of America Merill Lynch has released a new report about Canadian real estate titled, "Our Homes Have Four Walls". Hat tip to Dylan for emailing this to me. The main conclusion of the report is as follows:

CMHC feeling the heat

MARCH 23, 2011

CMHC feeling the heat

Scotia on the ‘Tapped out’ consumer; TD on Ontario’s debt problems

MARCH 24, 2011

The 'tapped out' consumer Scotia economics has reiterated a call that I've been sticking to all year: The Bank of Canada will be highly hesitant to raise rates later this year.....if at all. But for the housing bulls who frequent this blog, let's recognize that while the speed at which interest rates will rise will likely be slow, their ultimate direction is unquestionable.

House prices and per capita GDP: A sure sign of a bubble?

MARCH 25, 2011

I'm currently working with some data to show the historic relationship between house prices in Canada and various other factors such as inflation, population growth, immigration, income, mortgage debt, rents, etc. I'll share the data as I complete it and then compile it into one giant post that will become the next primer.

David Madani on CBC’s “The Lang and O’Leary exchange”

MARCH 26, 2011

You may recall that David Madani from Capital Economics released two reports earlier this year which were exactly in line with the preditions on this blog. In the first report, he outlined his concerns about the Canadian real estate market, focusing on the same measures of fundamental value often discussed here.

House prices: Examining inflation and supply/demand factors

MARCH 28, 2011

I continue to work with some CREA data to find historic relationships between house prices and other factors. I posted earlier on the historic correlation between house prices and per capita GDP, which shows significant overvaluation on a nation wide basis. Today we'll look quickly at inflation and then at some supply and demand factors.

CIBC on the housing and the Canadian Consumer; Bank of Canada speech; Other noteworthy news stories

MARCH 29, 2011

CIBC on housing and the Canadian consumer Just a week after Scotia Economics released a report suggesting that Canadian consumers are "tapped out", CIBC economics has released an interesting report that contains some similar themes. Some highlights:

A regional look at Canada’s housing bubble: Part 1

APRIL 01, 2011

Introduction I recently highlighted the fact that aggregate Canadian house prices appear to be significantly overvalued relative to GDP per capita (one of the key determinents of income....all things being equal, higher income levels should equate to higher house prices). Here are the key charts from that post:

Another look at mass psychology, asset bubbles, and the Canadian real estate market

APRIL 06, 2011

Understanding the driver of asset bubbles Perhaps the greatest distinction between those economists who have correctly identified asset bubbles in the past and those whose economic models failed to identify them is the ability of the former group to recognize the role that mass psychology plays in building asset bubbles. My personal belief is that an asset bubble needs several key components in order to be birthed. It's difficult to say which comes first, but I do believe that an asset bubble requires the following:

What are the implications?

APRIL 07, 2011

I'm working on a neat series looking at the historical percentage of GDP derived from residential construction in different provinces and connecting that to the change in the percentage of the workforce employed in construction over time. It might give us some hints on how a potential housing correction might weigh on economic and job growth. Stay tuned for that.

Measuring the potential economic impact of a housing bust

APRIL 11, 2011

We do in fact live in unique times. While we can disagree on exactly what the future holds for real estate in Canada and what implications (if any) this may have on the economy, we can not disagree on certain facts.

How important is construction to economic growth and employment across Canada?: Part 2

APRIL 17, 2011

In part 1 of this series we looked at construction employment as a percentage of total employment, and residential construction as a percent of GDP for all provinces from BC east to Ontario.

Unexpected immigration numbers in BC; Great reads from the Globe and Mail

APRIL 28, 2011

BC sees negative net migration, falling immigration Stats Canada released their quarterly demographic estimates for the end of 2010 earlier in the week.  In a rather surprising trend, BC has experienced negative net provincial migration, falling immigration, and flat population growth for the first time since at least mid 2006.

Tour through the board stats: April 2011

MAY 04, 2011

Examining house prices and rents across the provinces

MAY 14, 2011

Prices and rents revisited: Earlier in the week, we examined the changes in house prices and rents in the largest cities in Canada.  We also spent quite a bit of time discussing why changes in rents are one of the measures of fundamental value when it comes to residential real estate.  If you are unclear on this, I suggest you re-read the post again.  It is important in appreciating the data I am going to present in this post.

Revisiting demographics: Another reason why the next decade will be nothing like the last

MAY 18, 2011

Revisiting demographics:

Why housing 'affordability' is a misleading indicator

MAY 19, 2011

UPDATE: I posted this article yesterday.  Today I see that RBC has released their updated housing affordability measures.  The post has been updated to reflect this new data.

Weekend reading and some dividend stocks worth watching

MAY 20, 2011

Weekend reading: I'm heading out to do some fishing for the weekend, so there will not be any posts until Monday at the earliest. Here are some articles worth reading over the weekend: RBC releases housing affordability measures

Visualizing the dangers of mass psychology

MAY 27, 2011

The following is a snippet from the upcoming Uber primer, complete with some new and original graphs.  Enjoy!   Why overwhelming majorities are bad news:

Tour through the board stats: May 2011

JUNE 07, 2011

It's that time of the month again.  Time to look at the most recent board stats from across the country to see if any trends are emerging.  The story of the past few months has been the rot in Victoria and BC's lower mainland, flashing warning signs in Vancouver, and strength in Toronto on the back of exceptionally low inventory numbers.  Let's see how May shaped up...   Victoria:

Have the mortgage rule changes led to an increase in forced sales?; The tale of three housing markets

JUNE 07, 2011

New mortgage rule changes = forced selling for 'habitual refinancers'?

Helmut Pastrick and the Twilight Zone

JUNE 11, 2011

I had to make a short post to highlight a monumentally bad article over at the MoneyVille (Toronto Star) website.  You can't make this stuff up.  Reading this article is like passing through a portal to a parallel world...

Have Canadian consumers reached their limit? The must-read report of the year

JUNE 14, 2011

Fantastic CGAAC report:  Have Canadian consumers reached their limits? The must-read report of the year has been released by the Certified General Accountant Association of Canada.  It contains so much great information that I may have to revisit it over several posts.  Here are a few random snippets and some excellent graphs:

More data on the prominence of Chinese buyers in Vancouver; The Economic Analyst in the news

JUNE 19, 2011

It’s been a busy couple of days, but I wanted to write a quick post highlighting some articles of interest from the past few days.   In the news... About a month ago, Larry MacDonald, business columnist for the Globe and Mail, sent me an email asking if I’d like to be featured in the ‘Me and My Money’ column.  I was quite happy to be considered.  Here is the article:

CIBC on the vulnerability of Canadian house prices

JULY 04, 2011

Misleading averages and bad science

JULY 06, 2011

Don's really not a bad guy....confused, but nice.

Redux: House prices and income growth in Canada...bigger and better

JULY 07, 2011

Readers of this blog will recall that a few months ago, I did a two-part series on house prices and income growth in Canada.  My philosophy is that when better data becomes available, we analyze it.  In this case, that first series used a data set from Stats Canada that unfortunately only extended back to the early 90s.

Revisiting the most important graph in understanding the Canadian real estate market

JULY 10, 2011

It’s time to revisit a couple graphs I’ve posted here several times before.  I have had a few reader questions and numerous comments related to these graphs.  I think it’s extremely important to understand them inside and out and to understand the implications.  Here are the graphs:  

House price and income ratios in Canadian cities: Part 1

JULY 11, 2011

As promised, we are beginning a 3 part series showing house prices and incomes in select Canadian cities.  I will analyze all cities for which I have house price and income data, which unfortunately is limited to 20 cities.

Shorting the Canadian housing market....Is it possible?

JULY 14, 2011

Reviewing the problem...

Rental Complex: A must-read article in Canadian Business...Recognize those graphs?

JULY 15, 2011

Readers may be interested in a fantastic article by Joanna Pachner of Canadian Business magazine: Rental Complex One of the dangerous misconceptions that I often address on this site is the notion that renting somehow equals throwing money away.  This is most certainly false, and, coupled with the new and prevailing stigma towards renting, it has no doubt played a role in buoying ownership rates in Canada to unprecedented levels.

Debunking two ridiculous stories about the Vancouver housing market

JULY 19, 2011

Is a rental crisis looming for Vancouver?  And while we’re at it, can we debunk the silly notion that building constraints because of geography have been the cause of the unprecedented rise in house prices?

Thinking outside the stigma: More excellent articles advance the case for renting

JULY 22, 2011

Breaking the stigma... I recently discussed an excellent Canadian Business article that I had the pleasure of contributing to.  This article did a great job of highlighting the social stigma associated with renting and provided an overview of the research that overwhelmingly concludes that renting is far from a poor financial decision....particularly in some of Canada's larger cities.

The making of a bubble-Part 2: The rest of the ingredients...

AUGUST 03, 2011

This is the second part of a two-part series examining the necessary ingredients in an asset bubble.  Part 1 can be read here.   Bubble Condition 3:  Investors experience a significant shift in mass psychology, often with a “new era” or “this time it’s different” mentality.

Stocks crap their pants; A slew of articles hammer the bubble message home

AUGUST 04, 2011

Stocks hit the brakes... Today the big North American bourses lost the most since the panic-induced routes of 2008, with the TSX shedding 3.4% and both the Dow and SP500 down over 4%.  Quite the carnage. So what's the message? 

Tour through the board stats: July 2011

AUGUST 10, 2011

It's time to once again take a look at any emerging trends in the monthly real estate board stats. Victoria: As has been the case for many months now, the Victoria market continues to bleed.  And rightfully so.  We know what the price/income ratio looks like in that city...

More signs of slowing economic growth as manufacturing sales fall again; CREA releases July resale stats

AUGUST 16, 2011

More signs of economic weakness: Stats Canada today released the most recent manufacturing sales data.  Manufacturing sales fell 1.5% (-$713 million) in June to $45.3 billion, the lowest level since November 2010. Sales have declined for three consecutive months after growing steadily since May 2009.

BMO's Canadian Housing Outlook; Speculative fever still reigns in Toronto condo market

SEPTEMBER 29, 2011

BMO's Canadian housing outlook: BMO is set to release its updated Canadian housing outlook.  It will be posted on their website tomorrow.  Here's a sneak peak at their conclusions, with a few of my own thoughts. Low interest rates have fuelled Canada’s housing market in the past decade, pushing prices to new highs in most regions. However, a weaker economy and new mortgage rules have dimmed activity recently.

Toronto condo mania continues while the Vancouver market hits the brakes.

OCTOBER 05, 2011

Toronto condo market: Still ruled by speculators While we await the final September Toronto resales figures due out any time, it's worth once again discussing the incredibly irrational entity that is the Toronto condo market. Yesterday, a great deal of buzz was generated by an article describing bidding wars in the condo RENTAL market!  Some key quotes:

A sky-high view of global real estate markets: Is Canada really different?

OCTOBER 08, 2011

The week that was; Economics is all about "demand and demand"; Sherry Cooper sees positive demographic trends?

OCTOBER 14, 2011

What a week!

Can the Bank of Canada orchestrate a soft landing in housing?

OCTOBER 17, 2011

CREA released their latest resale figures and the Bank of Canada released some rather downbeat business outlook data.  Unfortunately, that will have to wait until tomorrow.  There’s only so much brain juice to go around.  Today, I’ve used my daily ration looking at soft landings in real estate.    Can the Bank of Canada orchestrate a 'soft landing'?

House price to rent ratios in Canadian cities at alarming levels

DECEMBER 23, 2011

By now most people have heard that the IMF has released two excellent reports on the Canadian macro picture, with emphasis on our housing situation.  They can be read in full here and here.

Thoughts from CMHC's Canadian Housing Observer

JANUARY 01, 2012

Happy New Year!  I’m hoping to get a chance to post some 2012 predictions and review my 2011 predictions, which I’m fairly happy with. In the meantime, I just wanted to share a few thoughts on CMHC after reading through the 2011 edition of their flagship publication, The Canadian Housing Observer. Readers will know that I have been critical of CMHC over the following: CMHC’s mandate, which I believe is inherently self-defeating.

A look at household balance sheets: Is Canada really that much better?

AUGUST 23, 2012

Below are some thoughts on a chart that seems to keep showing up in every bank report on housing in Canada.  I also wrote an Econowatch article for Macleans on this topic, which is free of some of the jargon contained in the article below as it was intended to be accessible to a wider audience beyond the econo-nerds who frequent this site.  Note that this is NOT an exhaustive analysis of similarities/differences between the housing and mortgage markets in C

I'm coming to Vancouver for a free real estate and investment seminar. Book your seat!

OCTOBER 26, 2012

Well I've been warning for some time now of the extreme risks facing the Vancouver housing market.  You can go all the way back to last year to read some of my thoughts on where that market was heading: Vancouver housing in full correction mode

10 Canadian Housing and Economic Trends to Watch in 2013: Part 1

JANUARY 01, 2013

Part two of this series can be read here. First off, Happy Holidays and all the best for the New Year! On the housing and macro economic front, 2013 is shaping up to be…..interesting, to say the least.  While I no longer enjoy the free time to blog on a regular basis, I will endeavor to keep readers ahead of the big trends by posting as often as my schedule permits.  I do appreciate the loyal readership.

10 Canadian Housing and Economic Trends to Watch in 2013: Part 2

JANUARY 02, 2013

Housing and econo-geeks who find this stuff interesting may want to join me in Toronto in February for a free seminar on housing, the economy, and what it all means for your investment portfolio.  Details here. Part 1 of this series can be read here. Yesterday we looked at five trends worth watching in 2013.  Today, five more.  

What's next for the Toronto housing market?

JANUARY 30, 2013

What's next for the Toronto housing market? That will be one of the topics on the agenda on February 21st when I'll be in Toronto giving a free seminar sponsored by the LePoidevin Group.  The full details and online registration form are in the following link: www.realestate2013.ca On the agenda:

Slowing population growth in Toronto hits the headlines: Implications for housing demand

FEBRUARY 01, 2013

Just a quick note to highlight some data in CMHC's latest Housing Now publication covering the GTA.  But before I get to that, I would like to repost a portion from a recent post on trends to watch in 2013:

Toronto sales come in flat in January; Huge questions about inventory; Downtown condo market still under stress

FEBRUARY 06, 2013

Reminder to readers:  I'll be in Toronto later this month talking about housing, the economy, and investing trends.  Reserve your complimentary seats here.   Toronto sales flat compared to last January